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Dates: 16th-17th September 2026

Venue: Engineer's House in Bristol.

The ARIA Forecasting Tipping Points (FTP) programme is seeking to develop a prototype Early Warning System (EWS) by advancing holistically both the observational and modelling challenges inherent in such an aim. As thinking developed, it became clear that significant thought needed to be given to the wider social and ethical dimensions and implications of deploying such an EWS. This workshop is intended to inform the FTP programme about some key ethical and social issues arising when considering an EWS for North Atlantic tipping points. It brings together a diversity of voices, both academic and practitioner, from science as well as the humanities and social sciences, from different geographies and perspectives on climate change, climate risks and early warning of abrupt, non-linear change in important parts of the climate system.   

The first day explores the idea of an EWS for tipping points.  How similar or different would such a system be compared to existing EWSs for risks such as for floods, volcanoes, earthquakes or for an important component of earth system variability, the ENSO? The scale of the events about which such an EWS seeks to forewarn seems to make it a very different “social technology”, whose political and social implications are unclear. There is a need to consider not only the effects of crossing some climate threshold, which will extend far beyond the North Atlantic region, but also the potential for unanticipated responses to the triggering of a warning that might have wide-ranging consequences. What then might such an EWS for tipping points look like? Which institution(s) would govern, operate and decide on how and when to issue a warning? What would be its uses and who its users? And what would be its social, political and geopolitical implications? How would such a system affect incentives for climate mitigation and adaptation action and how does this depend on the lead time the might there be for any warning and its credibility?  

The second day builds on these reflections and tries to draw some preliminary insights to inform the ARIA programme and wider thinking on these issues. One session will start to think about what underlying principles and values that might help to avoid, as far as is possible, unwanted or unintended consequences. Another will focus on what would be required to design an EWS that would be useful, usable and used. A closing session will try to synthesize some of the key points while a panel discussion will be an opportunity for reflection and identification of next steps.